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|Title: ||Complexity and anisotropy in host morphology make populations less susceptible to epidemic outbreaks|
|Authors: ||Perez-Reche, Francisco J.|
Taraskin, Sergei N.
Costa, Luciano da F.
Neri, Franco M.
Gilligan, Christopher A.
|Affiliation: ||University of Abertay Dundee. School of Contemporary Sciences|
University of Abertay Dundee. Scottish Informatics, Mathematics, Biology and Statistics Centre
|Issue Date: ||Jul-2010|
|Publisher: ||The Royal Society|
|Type: ||Journal Article|
|Rights: ||This is the author's final version of this article. Published version (c)The Royal Society, available from http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2009.0475|
|Citation: ||Perez-Reche, F.J., et al. 2010. Complexity and anisotropy in host morphology make populations less susceptible to epidemic outbreaks. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 7(48): pp.1083-1092. Available from http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2009.0475|
|Abstract: ||One of the challenges in epidemiology is to account for the complex morphological structure of hosts such
as plant roots, crop fields, farms, cells, animal habitats and social networks, when the transmission of
infection occurs between contiguous hosts. Morphological complexity brings an inherent heterogeneity
in populations and affects the dynamics of pathogen spread in such systems. We have analysed the
influence of realistically complex host morphology on the threshold for invasion and epidemic outbreak
in an SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemiological model. We show that disorder expressed in
the host morphology and anisotropy reduces the probability of epidemic outbreak and thus makes the
system more resistant to epidemic outbreaks. We obtain general analytical estimates for minimally safe
bounds for an invasion threshold and then illustrate their validity by considering an example of host
data for branching hosts (salamander retinal ganglion cells). Several spatial arrangements of hosts with
different degrees of heterogeneity have been considered in order to analyse separately the role of shape
complexity and anisotropy in the host population. The estimates for invasion threshold are linked to
morphological characteristics of the hosts that can be used for determining the threshold for invasion in
|Appears in Collections:||SIMBIOS Collection|
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